Putting the community group purchase as a channel change of Internet e-commerce, based on the "People – Shop – Field" E-commerce Research Framework and look at the community group purchase, analyzes the stage in the retail process, and analyzes the three major indicators affecting market size. "Number of users – purchase frequency – guest price", explore the current future development trend of the industry.
Source / CRE Securities
Author / Liu Xin
The user’s further sinking
Seeking double elevation for retail rates and conversion rates
From the element of "people", the initial development of traditional e-commerce develops is the bonus of users. As the number of users close to the ceiling, the subject is more in the subject, and the user’s retaining and consumption transfer.
1. Traditional electricity supplier What has changed?
Traditional integrated e-commerce has met the basic online shopping needs of online users.
With the gradual maturity of the development of the e-commerce industry, from the traditional retail channel to a variety of Internet retail coexistence, the number of online shopping population has increased, and the total amount of active users is constantly expanding.
From the user online shopping related data, as of June 2021, my country’s online shopping users had reached 812 million, and online shopping users were 23% in the 14-year compound growth rate between 2007 to 2020.
In June 2021, the penetration rate of online users was increased to 80.34%, and the penetration was basically stable. Online shopping has become a general, fast, efficient, unsabricated consumption method.
At the same time, we also see that the growth rate of per capita online shopping scale will slow down year by year, and the e-commerce industry needs further breakthroughs.
2. Community optimize buy what?
The community group purchase further activated the penetration of the sinking market line.
From a user point of view, compared to traditional comprehensive e-commerce, community group purchase can cover more sinking markets, so that they enjoy the dividend of the Internet 3.0.
If you say, the rise of more rises benefits from the victory of "sinking users", the community group purchase is the further penetration of the sinking market in the stock era. Community group purchases and spelling more users are similar, but they have different.
The number of users in the community group purchase in the three-wire and three wires is 70%, and the users of the three-wire and three-wire under the three-wire and third wires below is about 60%. my country’s total population is approximately 68% in the three-wire and third lines. In the distribution of online shopping users, only 34% of the three lines and three lines.
Description and spelling compared to a lot of community group purchases to the sinking market.
3. The future that the future can break through "people" is?
We have obtained in the analysis of the previous article, there are two factors affecting "people", one is the traffic input to the platform with the scene, further keeping a platform for the platform, the user’s ceiling is restricted by "goods"; The user’s transformation is also the impact of the platform "goods" by paying conversion to platform.
Based on this, we believe that community group purchase can be broken through two aspects:
(1) From the traffic to the user, the remaining rate is further improved
According to the "China Shopping Veter Report" released by the Kaid Consumers Index, the penetration rate of community group purchases in the first quarter of this year is 27%. There is still a lot of rising space compared to 79% of my country’s online shopping residents.
As the core owner of the traffic resource, the head Internet company has a stronger external traffic import ability, which has a natural advantage on the user’s attraction, which can also be used as a second reason for the explanation of the small platforms. The first reason is that the community group purchase has a huge demand for funds, and the financial platform is insufficient, and there is a certain inevitability in the long run).
From the space, the upper limit of the electric business industry is the whole of China’s netizens, the difference between the size of online shopping users and netizens is the potential new increase of traffic pools to user pool, and the number of users of the community group purchase more than traditional e-commerce platform With a large lifting space, of course, based on the previous discussion, the number of the number of ceiling is subject to the type of goods. In addition, the WeChat applet is a high-frequency entrance, and the implementation of interconnection interoperability will further contribute to the community group purchase.
(2) From the user to pay buyers, the conversion rate is further improved
The promotion of conversion determines the number of buyers who truly pay at the platform. Community group purchase with novel and explosive drainage, the limitations of categories have caused user portraits.
On the one hand, the user ceilings are limited; on the other hand, the categories are insufficient to affect the purchase frequency, which in turn affects the transformation of the user to the buyer.
In 2020, the growth rate of rural social retail sales was -3.2%, and the growth rate of rural community is negative. The growth rate of online retail sales is positive, indicating that there is a strong demand for online consumption in rural areas in my country. With the consumer online consumption habits and viscosity, the consumption demand in the sinking market will be further stimulated.
Solved the problem of raising
The improvement of multi-product line rate is key
1. Traditional electricity supplier What has changed?
Traditional e-commerce promotes the linearization of clothing, 3C, fast food, beauty, etc.Different product products have significant differences in the penetration of different channels due to different product characteristics, and traditional comprehensive e-commerce has enhanced the online level of clothing, 3C, fast food, beauty, etc. Higher level.
From three major comprehensive e-commerce, Tmall products are the most abundant, with clothing box, digital appliances, etc. Bags, digital electrical appliances share the proportion to 50%, and it is relatively low compared with Tmall.
Although traditional e-commerce achieves great achievement of partial categories from online to online consumption transfer, some of the linearization rates of some kinds of lines are still insufficient. Numerous is sensitive, high consumption, consumers more attention to cost-effective, and integrated e-commerce compliance chains cannot meet the quality of novel in transportation.
Fresh products still have a large pain point in the demand of "Happy Province". The emergence of fresh e-commerce has driven the process of raising the fresh line, but the pre-position, the warehouse store is currently still there in the difficulty of sinking and the high price.
The emergence of fresh e-commerce has greatly satisfied consumers in time and quality demand, but due to high performance rates, the problem of high price is too high.
From the user properties from the front position, more concentrated in high-line cities, June 2021, 咚 buy dishes and daily prodigroups in three wires and three wires account for only 7.3% and 6.8%.
2. Community optimize buy what?
Community group purchases are a community e-commerce model that puts fresh lines and the user’s downstream. The community group purchase is made as a drainage, compared to traditional e-commerce to achieve a fresh line, and the SKU of the statistics of the community group purchase head platform, with a fresh product ratio of approximately 30-35%, including vegetables, fruits , Meat egg poultry and seafood, etc.
In contrast, the community group purchase can effectively reduce at least two circulation links while ensuring a lower price increase rate and loss rate, which can provide a product of quality and price, improve the front position. Waiting for the pain of fresh e-commerce model.
3. What is the good category that I can sell in the future "goods"?
The community group purchases will extend from all kinds of fresh products.Based on the analysis of the e-commerce research framework, "goods" creation and how much affect the purchase frequency and customer bills, although nice is high-frequency consumer goods, the passenger bill and gross profit margin are not high. Therefore, the community group purchase model, which is fresh as a drainage, is mainly expanded from all kinds of fresh products.
The Third Eye is calculated according to retail research data, the average consumption of the user community buy frequency of about 2.4 times / week, customer price is about 30 yuan.
Compared with the user community to buy the portrait is similar to a lot of fight, a lot of active buyers in 2020 to fight the consumption frequency of 49 times / year, customer price of 44 yuan, the higher the proportion of community buy fresh category, lack of richness category Since fresh are high-frequency and low-margin category, as compared with a lot of fight, consumer community buy higher frequency and lower customer price.
We believe that with the expansion and training of community buy consumer shopping viscous category, the consumer can buy the future of the community while ensuring the frequency of consumption, improve customer unit.
With the near-field community to buy electricity supplier stage model gradually mature, SKU and ceiling will significantly expand the user.
We believe that the community buy in the "goods" to further expand mainly from the category penetration and rich brand of drive: Other fresh food outside, such as drinks, milk drinks, cereals, oil, snacks, frozen food and so on, that part in the comprehensive category a lower proportion of electricity supplier channels to buy, the main sales channel is still the supermarkets, convenience stores and so on, just to be as high frequency goods, provide more cost-effective to buy the community has a certain appeal to consumers.
The category current sales channel structure, there have been more obvious changes, based GMV caliber, a community group purchase platform for the sales of the two largest categories of wine to drink milk and grain spices, monthly GMV reached 900 million and 700 million.
Articles for daily use, the product category labeled as a high frequency of consumption, the consumer shift from offline to online scene more easily, the current electricity provider channel sales accounted for only 15%, the category is not currently buy high penetration in the community platform, but the long-term penetration of larger space.
Other consumer discretionary categories, 3C, clothing, a beauty care, etc., and other electricity providers in the online consumer channel has a higher penetration rate and the demand for timeliness is not high, long-term buy penetrate the space community still needs to be investigated , if the use of C2M models, factory direct docking, is expected to seek a breakthrough in price.
Sinking market distribution chain has been restructured
Supply chain and warehouse re-start
We believe that the previous analysis of the "field" which includes a change in the physical space, innovative consumer scene, construction supply chain and warehouse distribution system, this part of the changes in the first two we do not discuss the main issues discussed in the supply chain and warehousing.
Future changes at multiple levels of "goods" category at the end of penetration and "field" (a new scene, logistics efficiency) are closely related.
Only the "field" in the supply chain and compliance system set up perfect, in order to improve the "goods" category and quantity, to further improve customer price and the number of active buyers.
1. Traditional electricity supplier What has changed?
(1) scenario: the consumption of traditional electricity supplier scene is transferred from the line to the line
In the era of Internet 3.0, between the user and the consumer network closely integrated at all levels and other basic necessities, electricity providers have changed the traditional choice of social consumption of the main consumer, the consumer has been generally accepted "line the shelves, online browsing" consumption patterns, online shopping scene has become an integral part of everyday life.
2020 new crown the impact of the epidemic, accounting for the rapid increase of online channels, irreversible changes in the minds of consumers.
(2) Supply Chain: reducing circulation upstream docking
Traditional industries and enterprises in circulation long, low efficiency and high cost.Starting from traditional B2B business demand for electricity, the Internet plays fast and efficient characteristics, raw material suppliers and buyers to conduct electronic business platform through the integration of resources, improve the consideration of their transactions, but also reduces the cost of downstream buyers.
C2M clock is a lot of fight fight factory pattern to provide consumers with cost-effective products. On the demand side through the "goods to find someone," innovation "to fight social group", "invite bargain", "help free single" and other new marketing methods, in a short time and efficient gathering of large-scale orders; the supply side of the upstream and downstream demand directly factory connected to achieve accurate "need to quotas."
C2M efficient connecting the upstream manufacturers, end users and the production of goods, shortening the supply chain to reduce distribution costs, to provide consumers with cost-effective product.
(3) cartridge with: a conventional power distribution end to provide
Join the system Express: With the rise in recent years, shared economic concepts in the field of logistics, the traditional electricity supplier logistics and distribution end of the formation of the traditional distribution model, since the question crowdsourcing distribution model and distribution model joint development of the situation.
To access as the representative of the Department of express delivery companies to join the system, the establishment of a more comprehensive network delivery model, the parcel electricity supplier by "get pieces – end distribution logistics approach to the operation of transit – transport route – – transit" in operation mode.
According to the annual report disclosure of express delivery industry leader in the pass, go to the country that has 91 transit centers, 30,000 terminal outlets, county-level city coverage of 99%. Traditional join the system Express compliance costs include delivery costs headquarters, network operating costs and delivery fee.
2. Community optimize buy what?
We explained above traditional electricity supplier in the realization of the product line has failed to break fresh category, although fresh electricity providers to achieve a line of fresh, but the front compartment positioned high consumer segments, with higher spending power, high time-sensitive, front closer to the consumer from the warehouse, fast response and specialist distribution leads to higher compliance costs.
"Head of the pre-sale system + system", the central warehouse – grid positions – Head of sinking market distribution chain has been restructured.
(1) pre-sale, to market ability to reduce inventory, reduce inventory storage costs, reduce the rate of loss of natural commodities.
(2) from mentioning, eliminating end distribution costs, reduce transportation costs corresponding artificial.
(3) flow, shorten the links increase rate reduction.
3. Future trends in the "field"?
The supply chain, farm direct mining C2M + standard products is expected to complement the channel; the storage and processing of fresh self-built warehouse and cold chain distribution problem is still the focus of investment; on the performance, the role of the head will continue to be weakened.
Community buy platform assumed the role of sales to the second issue of business, although given the optimized consumer prices increase in the rate, but in all aspects of performance still has many problems and pain points, such as vendor stability is not strong, lack SKU supply; central warehouse performance will limit consumers to buy poor quality to enhance the frequency and so on; there is standardization of the layout, number, location of the grid positions; change in the head end of the end will bring change from mentioning the way.
The future, the center will face merger or warehouse building warehouse processing two types of test, the number of center positions of influence supply efficiency and average compliance costs suppliers, warehouse construction process is to ensure low temperature conditions conducive to some of the high temperature requirements of category quality improvement.
Future community buy
1. Perspective electricity supplier analytical framework
We, the community buy in accordance with the framework of electronic business trend of the future "people – – goods field," the three elements of the analysis of the number of users, purchase frequency, customer price corresponding to predict, determine community buy future trends and market space .
People: According to Kay index of consumer release of "Chinese shoppers report," Community buy in the first quarter of this year on my country’s household penetration rate of 27%, in 2019 my country’s total number of households 466 700 000, corresponding to the number of households community buy 1.26 one hundred million (community consumer buy the family unit, so when calculating the number of households to scale as the number of buyers).
Under the new marketing research shows that community buy in our line, a new line, second line, third line, four-user accounting and the following cities were 2.6%, 7.4%, 13.4%, 20.3%, 56.3%, corresponding to penetration cities They were 12.7%, 15.1%, 25.6%, 22.1%, 33.2%.
For Competition lot of user structure, we assume that community buy 3.0 stage, first-tier cities subscriber penetration and fight a lot there is a 30% gap, there is a new first-tier cities 20% of the gap, there is a second-tier cities 10% of the gap and third tier cities and fight a lot basically the same, and the following four-city fight a lot of penetration beyond 10%. 2.0 and 3.0 thus corresponds to the number of households stage were 193 million and 265 million.
Goods: the current community to buy fresh, grain and oil seasoning, Hugh food, daily necessities mainly, according to The Third Eye of retail research, community buy single user at a single week frequency of 2.4 times, customer price is about 30 yuan.
Because the current user is still in the stage of mental training, subject to the restrictions of the supply chain and warehousing, due to insufficient customer price category and frequency of consumption there is still room for improvement.
Because of the positioning of the current main community buy fresh and buy relatively higher frequency of traditional electricity supplier, customer price but still a wide gap, with the goods category will expand from one hundred to date and fresh clothing and 3C category, as well as fresh and further enhance the penetration of other food, we assume that community buy 2.0 and 3.0 stages of the purchase frequency was 2.5 / 2.6 weeks / week customer price were raised to 50 yuan and 80 yuan.
Course: Current community still buy three main distribution warehouse, not yet open up the upstream supply chain, warehouse center is still self-oriented platform, the grid positions for the franchisee form, dependent on the head of the beginning of the year declined.
But currently there are still bad cold chain link behind, meat and some other categories of quality problems, resulting in poor consumer experience, while limiting the expansion of the category of goods.
In addition, the central warehouse layout results in lower procurement scale and sorting process efficiency, limit the amount can not be achieved single-diluted compliance costs.
In the long run, supply chain and logistics industry is still the focus of attention of the community to buy.
With the expansion of user penetration depth and goods, bringing the number of active household consumption, purchase frequency, and enhance customer price, we expect the community to buy 2.0 and market space is expected to reach 1.3 trillion.
2. category penetration perspective
Further, based on our category penetration perspective on the judgment inspection. We believe that the main achievement of community buy 1.0 stage fresh, Hugh food, grain and oil seasoning alternative channels.
Medium and long term, clear day one hundred other categories have high penetration space; in the long run, a beauty care, 3C, clothing are expected to buy grafted to the community platform, has a certain impact on the traditional electricity supplier channels, long-term market space is expected to reach 224 million.
Finally, escape the business logic itself, we want to think of the Internet today, what his nature and value in the end is?
Efficiency improvements (such as changing the way retail), rich scene (social entertainment changes the way), all these and so are essentially achieve a Pareto improvement.
Internet companies maximize the value of time should be more from the "new requirements" set out in itself, profit by optimizing the efficiency and profitability rather than by other aspects of the industry chain profit squeeze.
If we say that the industry is consumer demand-oriented supply matches demand; cycle industry is supply-oriented, demand supply decisions.
Then the development of the Internet is undoubtedly the creation of new demand, we mentioned in the first part of 2003, Taobao to make online shopping possible, greatly promoted the rate of online apparel category;
2004 Jingdong to achieve a line rate of 3C category; in 2014 the US group and hungry to help people realize what a stay at home to enjoy the food may be;
2015 appears to fight a lot, so that consumers face manufacturers, not only to promote the rapid expansion of the size of the user’s electricity supplier industry, while allowing market sank to enjoy the convenience and benefits brought about by the electricity supplier;
In 2020, fresh electricity supplier in the rapid development of catalytic epidemic solve the problem of fresh category online rates. When the community buy emerge, perhaps new hopes people see, our market sinking huge crowd (people), and scattered agricultural species complex (cargo), the higher the performance aspects of the complexity of the (field).
Customers will be an unprecedented community infrastructure dividends, realized more than forty thousand villages and towns nationwide next day in the village of commercial activities, we expect the Internet to agriculture-depth gene from the sales side to side effects of the production, but also look forward to the Internet and play thinking on agriculture depth rewritten.
Source / CRE Securities
Author / Liu Xin